Simulation Modeling to Evaluate the Restoration of an Elk Population to Southern Illinois

As part of a study of the feasibility of re-establishing a free-ranging elk population in southern Illinois, I used simulation modeling to examine population growth relative to variation in carrying capacity, initial release size, calf production, yearling cow recruitment, adult cow survival, maximum growth rate, and the probability of a demographic catastrophe. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the performance of a simulated elk population was relatively robust to variation in all factors except maximum growth rate and probability of demographic catastrophe. These results indicate that the establishment phase of an elk restoration project in Illinois is likely to be successful given the assumptions made about elk demographics. Population control programs and the detrimental effects of endemic disease (a possible source of demographic catastrophe), and loss of genetic variation remain important management considerations.